It won’t necessarily be Chuck

  • Being who you thought we were since 2005!Log In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsSectionsBearsOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Latest NewsThe Bears DenNotesXs and OsSuperfansBreaking News:The Bears' 2019 Draft class is complet From The Desk Of...The Bears Defense Will Probably Regress in 2019New Womens Kerrith Whyte Jersey ,52commentsIt won’t necessarily be Chuck Pagano’s fault.CSTShareTweetShareShareThe Bears Defense Will Probably Regress in 2019Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY SportsThe success of the 2018 Chicago Bears was driven by a defense that was at the top of the NFL. Exactly where they ranked depends on which metric you prefer, but Football Outsiders ranked them first overall, first against the pass, and second against the rush. That seems about right. In a perfect world, the Bears would ride the best defense in the NFL into the history books, remaining at the top of the NFC North for years. This would allow Matt Nagy the chance to develop Mitchell Trubisky and the offense, and all would be well.It’s probably not going to happen. The defense is likely to see a dip in performance, and that’s even assuming that they don’t lose any important players like Adrian Amos or Bryce Callahan. When that happens, some fans are likely to blame the loss of Vic Fangio and the introduction of Chuck Pagano. The thing is, it won’t be Pagano’s fault, necessarily, either.Defenses are really inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. This is a major reason it makes more sense for a team to invest in offense, and it’s also one of the reasons why the Bears are fortunate in having an offensive coach at the center of their organization.Turnovers Aren’t SustainableFootball Outsiders tells us that predicting turnovers is a difficult thing. In fact, it’s really unlikely for a team to sustain turnovers on a year-to-year basis. In 2004,it was noted that teams rarely sustain a presence at the top of the turnover board from one season to the next, and that exact same trend was found to be true again in 2014. For 2018, Chicago led the league with 36 takeaways. That is really, really good. It also does very little to suggest how the next season is going to go.To pick one finding out of many, 538 reports that from 2009-2018, a team’s interception rate in the prior season had only a 2.4% share of predicting the next season’s success. What Kyle Fuller did in 2018 was great, but there is little reason to think the Bears are going to stay at the top of the leaderboard in this regard.What this means is that Chicago’s defense--which had five more takeaways than the next-closest competitor in 2018--is unlikely to stay that dominant. This won’t be Pagano’s fault, even if fans look to find a way to blame him.Chicago Over-performed in SacksUnlike interceptions, quarterback hits do tend to be consistent on a year-to-year basis. Sacks, however, do not (and sacks only own a 3.6% share of predicting the next season’s success rate). Chicago was 8th in quarterback hits last season Kerrith Whyte Jersey 2019 , with 95; that should have resulted in an expected sack rate of around 41 or 42 sacks. Instead, the Bears enjoyed 49 sacks. In other words, while quarterback hits are consistent, sacks are not. We should expect to see the same defense get slightly fewer sacks next season even if they do maintain the same rate of hitting the quarterback. That means that Chicago will likely field a top-half or even top-third defense. It does not suggest that they will be one of the very top teams in sacks, like they were in 2018.Defense as a Whole is VolatileIn general, defense is less reliable than offense. That’s one reason why offensive DVOA does roughly twice as good of a job of predicting the next season’s success as defensive DVOA. The top three defenses in 2016 were Denver, New York (Giants), and Arizona. In 2017, those same units ranked 10th, 18th, and 4th. In 2018, there were--in the same order--5th, 24th, and 17th. A number of factors impact defense, including rules that are slanted to favor offenses and the ability of offenses to isolate aspects of a defense that they choose to focus on. In simple terms, an offense can almost always choose who gets to be in on a play, even if that choice is filtered through the opportunities provided by a defense. On the other hand, a defense cannot be guaranteed that its best players will even have a chance to make a play on the ball. Ultimately, what this means is that when the defense of the 2019 Chicago Bears take the field, they will likely be a capable unit. They will probably be able to take over games and win a few contests almost on their own. However, it is really unlikely they will dominate games as they did in 2018, and their struggles will have a number of explanations unconnected to either Vic Fangio’s departure or Chuck Pagano’s arrival as his replacement. Jordan Howard is out, DeAndre Houston-Carson is in as we edge towards the NFL Draft"BEAR DOWN, CHICAGO BEARS, BEAR DOWN!!!!BEARRRSSSS / FREE AGENCY / DRAFTHoge: Even At A Lower Price White Kerrith Whyte Jersey , Trading Jordan Howard Made Sense | WGN Radio - 720 AM - A trade that has been expected for months finally materialized Thursday night, as the Bears sent Howard to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for a 2020 sixth round pick that could eventually turn into a fifth round pick, depending on the conditions.Mayer: Bears re-sign DB DeAndre Houston-Carson - - The Bears on Friday re-signed safety DeAndre Houston-Carson to a one-year contract. The 2016 sixth-round draft pick has appeared in 32 games in three seasons, contributing primarily on special teams.Mayer: Bears believe in their revamped backfield - - It will sport a new look after at least one addition and one subtraction, but the Bears are confident that their retooled backfield will boast depth and diversity in 2019.Medina: With Jordan Howard Gone, How Will the Bears Address Their Running Game? - Bleacher Nation - For the first time since 2015, the Bears’ running backs room won’t feature Jordan Howard. So what’s next?Medina: The Bears Are Bringing Back Safety DeAndre Houston-Carson on a One-Year Deal - Bleacher Nation - Valued reserve safety and special teams contributor DeAndre Houston-Carson is back for another year.Bernstein: I Won’t Miss Jordan Howard - 670 The Score - Howard simply wasn’t quick or elusive enough to fit in Matt Nagy’s offense.Bears Re-Sign DeAndre Houston-Carson On 1-Year Deal - 670 The Score - The Bears have re-signed DeAndre Houston-Carson, who’s a backup defensive back and a key special teams contributor.Emma: Why The Bears Traded Jordan Howard - 670 The Score - In trading running back Jordan Howard to the Eagles, the Bears moved on from a player they didn’t desire anymore and gathered what they could in return.Biggs: A lack of success forced Ryan Pace to chase pricey free agents. Now the Bears can bide their time with ample cap room - Chicago Tribune - After years of being very active in the first wave of free agency when teams are forced to overpay by nature, the Bears were able to be more reserved this time around. They have ample cap room for now, making it a better situation for GM Ryan Pace.Biggs: DeAndre Houston-Carson, special-teams standout, returns to Bears on 1-year contract - Chicago Tribune - The Bears re-signed safety DeAndre Houston-Carson to a one-year contract Friday, bringing back one of their core special teams players. He tied for the team lead in tackles on special teams last season and contributed to the dime defense late in the year.Jordan Howard Traded to the Eagles (Plus: NFC North Defensive Bracket Breakdown) - Chicago Audible Podcast - Jordan Howard is no longer a Chicago Bear. Check out our raw instant reaction Plus, we go through and rank each NFC North team at every defensive position.Ingalls: Trading Jordan Howard Hurts, But It Doesn’t Matter - Chicago Audible Blog - It may sting letting go of a productive back such as Jordan Howard, recent history proves that Super Bowl teams don't typically rely on a featured back.Stankeviz: Why trading running back Jordan Howard to the Eagles made sense for the Bears - NBC Sports Chicago - For as good a player as Howard is, his fit within Nagy's system never quite worked.Mullin: Bears make winning deal sending Jordan Howard to Eagles through Chicago-Philly 'pipeline' - NBC Sports Chicago - From the beginning of Matt Nagy’s tenure as Bears head coach, the question became not if Jordan Howard would be on his way out of Chicago, but rather when.5 Players the Bears Could Target to Replace Jordan Howard - NBC Chicago - The Chicago Bears don't have a first or second round draft pick this season, but they could still make a move to snag a running back as they look to replace Jordan Howard.Sikes: Jordan Howard Thanks Bears Organization - Club Dub Bears Blog - It was just a matter of time before what happened yesterday became official. Jordan Howard is no longer a Chicago Bear.Sikes: Trey Burton On His First Year In Chicago “Bears Fans Are Awesome” - Club Dub Bears Blog - Looking back at the end of the 2017 season, the Bears tight end situation was pretty bleak. Zach Miller’s career ended in New Orleans on a horrific knee injury, Dion Sims continued to show that he was not reliable, and they had an unproven rookie in Adam Shaheen.Orr: Ranking NFL teams QB situations, best to worst - - Taking stock of NFL each team’s quarterback room—not just starting talent Dick Butkus Jerseys Stitched , but cost, health, backup quality and more. Ken's Note: Bears are 10 spots below Derek Carr, Mike Glennon and Nate Peterman? I'll have some of what Sports Illustrated is drinking, please...Smith: Jordan Howard trade again shows Eagles prioritize compensatory picks – ProFootballTalk - The Eagles’ decision to trade a 2020 third-day pick for Bears running back Jordan Howard is another example of the value Philadelphia places on compensatory picks. That’s because Howard is heading into the final year of his rookie contract.Jahns: Bears search for right back intensifies in draft - Sun Times - The Bears traded running back Jordan Howard to the Eagles for a sixth-round pick.Finley: RB Jordan Howard says his goodbye to the Bears - Sun Times - ”Although it was brief, the past three years were truly an amazing experience,” Jordan Howard wrote on Twitter.POLISH SAUSAGEWhich 2018 NFL playoff team is in the most trouble for the 2019 season? - - The 2018 playoff field was absolutely stacked. Two months later, following loads of offseason movement, which 2018 playoff team is in the most trouble heading toward the 2019 campaign? Let’s debate!KNOW THY ENEMYNFL poll: Everyone agrees the Detroit Lions got better in free agency - Pride Of Detroit - Lions fans are seriously chugging the Kool-Aid.NFL free agency: Former Lions TE Luke Willson signs with Raiders - Pride Of Detroit - For yet another offseason, the Lions will move on from their previous year’s tight end talent.Grading the Vikings’ free agency moves so far - Daily Norseman - Has Minnesota gotten better in the last three weeks?The draft offers depth, but expect the Packers’ biggest improvements at WR to come from within - Acme Packing Company - The NFL Draft is rich in second-day receiving prospects, but Green Bay’s three choices a year ago figure to set the tone for the position in 2019.IN CASE YOU MISSED IT ON WINDY CITY GRIDIRONWiltfong: Bears re-sign DeAndre Houston-Carson - Windy City Gridiron - The Bears have brought back special teams stand out DeAndre Houston-Carson.Wiltfong & Gowton: Jordan Howard - 5 things to know about the Eagles’ new running back - Bleeding Green Nation - Bears perspective on Philadelphia’s new backfield member.WCG CONTRIBUTORS BEARS PODCASTS & STREAMS2 Minute Drill - Website - iTunes - Andrew Link; Steven’s Streaming – Twitch – Steven Schweickert; T-Formation Conversation - Website - iTunes - Lester Wiltfong, Jr.; WCG Radio - Website - iTunes - Robert Zeglinski - The Blitz NetworkTHE RULESWindy City Gridiron Community Guidelines - - We strive to make our communities open and inclusive to sports fans of all backgrounds. The following is not permitted in comments. No personal attacks, politics, gender based insults of any kind, racial insults, etc.The Bear’s Den Specific Guidelines – The Bear’s Den is a place for Chicago Bears fans to discuss Chicago Bears football, related NFL stories, and general football talk. It is NOT a place to discuss religion or politics or post political pictures or memes. Unless otherwise stated, the Den is not an open thread, and profanity (including profanity only stated in pictures) is prohibited.Click on our names to follow us on Twitter:WCG Contributors: Jeff Berckes; Patti Curl; Eric Christopher Duerrwaechter;Kev H; Sam Householder; Jacob Infante; Aaron Lemming; Ken Mitchell; Steven Schweickert; Jack Silverstein; EJ Snyder; Lester Wiltfong, Jr.; Whiskey Ranger; Robert Schmitz; Robert Zeglinski; Like us on Facebook.